目录
摘要Ⅱ
关键词Ⅱ
AbstractⅢ
引言
引言1
1 选题背景1
1.1 课题的来源目的意义1
1.2 文献综述 2
2 模型预测及其合理性分析3
2.1 南京市总人口状况及人口指标数据分析3
2.1.1 南京市人口状况概述3
2.1.2 南京市人口指标数据分析 3
2.2 模型建立与预测分析及验证小结6
2.2.1 模型建立与预测分析6
2.2.2 模型验证误差分析7
2.2.3 课题小结8
3 讨论与反思8
3.1 反思总结8
3.2 进一步改善的可能9
致谢9
参考文献10
附录 2019年南京市各区人口数据11
基于马尔萨斯算法的人口预测模型的研究
摘 要
我国是世界上人口最多的国家，而人口是衡量一个国家综合国力的重要指标之一，处理不了基本的计生问题，国家富强也只是纸上谈兵。以南京市为例，要想制定合理的城市人口规划政策，保障城市的良好运营发展，一个准确完备的人口总量预估分析是不可或缺的。本文人口数据全部采用自南京市审计局公布的南京市统计年鉴，鉴于最新数据截至2018年，所以本次研究将通过对20002018年南京市人口总量数据的提取分析，着重考察其生育状况，人口出生率死亡率、常驻人口自然增长率等，将现阶段南京市人口数据进行分析拟合并对未来人口数量进行大胆预测，以期为南京市统筹人口发展规划做出一点贡献。课题研究结果表明：排除线性回归分析预测法和多项式拟合预测法后，马尔萨斯算法（高方案）基本符合南京市常住人口规模的现阶段发展趋势，可以作为未来人口预测的理论模型，在此基础上做出预测：2026年南京市常住人口将达726.98万人。
RESEARCH ON POPULATION PREDICTIONE MODEL BASED ON MALTHUS ALGORITHM
ABSTRACT
China is the most populous country in  *51今日免费论文网|www.51jrft.com +Q: ^351916072# 
the world, and population is one of the important indicators to measure a countrys comprehensive national strength. It cant deal with the basic family planning problem, and the countrys prosperity is just a matter of paper. Taking Nanjing as an example, if we want to make a reasonable urban population planning policy and ensure the good operation and development of the city, an accurate and complete prediction and analysis of the total population is indispensable. The population data in this paper are all from Nanjing Statistical Yearbook published by Nanjing Audit Bureau. In view of the latest data up to 2018, this study will focus on the fertility status, birth rate death rate, natural growth rate of resident population, etc. through the extraction and analysis of the total population data of Nanjing from 2000 to 2018, and analyze and merge the current population data of Nanjing This paper makes a bold prediction of the future population in order to make a contribution to the overall planning of population development in Nanjing. The research results show that after excluding linear regression analysis and polynomial fitting prediction, Malthus algorithm (high scheme) basically conforms to the current development trend of Nanjings permanent population scale, and can be used as a theoretical model for future population prediction. On this basis, the prediction is made: in 2026, Nanjings permanent population will reach 7.2698 million.
KEY WORDS：Population status; population forecast; immigration and emigration population; age and gender status; Malthus population model

原文链接：http://www.jxszl.com/jsj/xxaq/606994.html